The price of live pigs has stopped falling and has rebounded rapidly. According to Bo Yahe News, the price of live pigs in some parts of the country: the price of live pigs has stopped falling and rebounded rapidly. The statistics of the national average hog price of the Ministry of Agriculture was 10.35 yuan/kg on May 16, 2018;
The price of live pigs on May 25 in Boa and News was 10.78 yuan/kg, a rise of 4.15%. According to Dabei Agricultural Group's “Nutrition Assistant” information: On May 25th, the price of live pigs across the country generally rose, the increase rate increased to 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg, and the northeast region rose 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg. After the price of live pigs rose for four consecutive days, “the high price in the northern region generally exceeded 11.0 yuan/kg, and the southern region was led by Guangdong 12.2 yuan/kg”.
Staged oversupply caused the price of live pigs to fall in a “bridging style”. From January 10th to May 19th, 2018, the price of live pigs in China unexpectedly fell. The price of live pigs fell from 15.37 yuan/kg to 10.35 yuan/kg, a drop of 48.5%. The whole industry was in a loss situation. The reason for the analysis is that the number of pigs born in the first year of the year has increased significantly. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, the slaughter volume of large-scale slaughtering enterprises was 104.32 million in the first half of 2017, and 117.5 million in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, 13.2 million were slaughtered more than in the first half of the year. The slaughter of pigs in January-February 2018 was 40.376 million heads, an increase of 20.53% year-on-year (an increase of 240,000 heads over the same period in 2016). In the first four months of 2018, the total slaughter volume was 80.07 million heads, an increase of 18.5% over the same period in 2017. In April 2018, the slaughter volume was 21.161 million heads, an increase of 21.84% over the same period of 2017. Before the Spring Festival, the market is optimistic, and some of the big pigs will be postponed. According to Dabei Nong's “Pig Pig Assistant” information: sample slaughter enterprises, the average weight of pigs acquired from February 12, 2018 (previous year) 102Kg / head to the start of the year (February 26) 104Kg / head quickly rose to March On the 19th, 108Kg/head. When the slaughtering pigs are in the low season of consumption, the good inventory of the slaughtering enterprises and the “game” of the breeding enterprises to slaughter the pigs have caused the pig prices to fall rapidly and the innovation is low.
It is expected that the price of live pigs will rebound after the market and the bottom will rise. In the first quarter of 2018, the price of pigs fell, the farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was weakened, the supply of pigs decreased in the third quarter, the pork stocks gradually digested, the large-scale breeding enterprises began to price, and the price of live pigs is expected to rebound. It is expected that the price of live pigs will rise to 12 yuan/ About kilograms, the rebound rate is 15-20%. However, the industry's production capacity does not seem to have been significantly reduced or “cleared out”. Although the pace of large-scale aquaculture enterprise expansion has slowed down, a large number of construction projects are still advancing, and the free-range households are still insisting on making money in 2016-2017 (currently Feed prices have also been lowered). As the price of pigs rises, the enthusiasm of the farmers to replenish the bar has recovered (the price of piglets has rebounded) and the supply has gradually increased.